A Nigeria on the Brink of Collapse
By Damilola Omosebi
Imagine a Nigeria where President Bola Tinubu never uttered those fateful words: “Fuel subsidy is gone.” A Nigeria where the government continued to pour trillions of naira into keeping petrol prices artificially low, just as it had for decades. At first glance, it might seem like a relief; no sudden price hikes, no protests, no economic shock. But beneath the surface, this alternate reality would have been a ticking time bomb, one that could have pushed Africa’s largest economy into total financial ruin.
Here’s what would have happened if Tinubu didn’t stop the subsidies; and why Nigeria would have paid a far steeper price in the long run.
Nigeria Would Have Run Out of Money Literally
The most immediate and catastrophic consequence? The treasury would have bled dry.
In 2022 alone, Nigeria spent a staggering ₦4.4 trillion ($9.5 billion) on fuel subsidies; more than the combined budgets for health care, education, and infrastructure . By mid-2023, another ₦3.36 trillion was already budgeted, with no end in sight .
If Tinubu had continued this path, Nigeria would have faced two grim choices:
- Borrow even more, sinking deeper into debt (already at 97% of revenue before Tinubu took office) .
- Print money recklessly a desperate move that would have led to hyperinflation.
Economists warn that printing ₦200 trillion just to keep subsidies afloat would have made the naira nearly worthless. Imagine:
- A loaf of bread costing ₦5,000.
- A bag of rice selling for ₦100,000.
- Salaries rendered meaningless as prices spiral out of control.
This nightmare scenario isn’t hypothetical; it’s what happened in Zimbabwe and Venezuela when their governments tried to sustain unsustainable subsidies. Nigeria was on the same path.
Government Workers Would Have Gone Unpaid for Months
Where does subsidy money come from? The same pot that pays teachers, nurses, soldiers, and civil servants.
If subsidies had continued, the government would have faced an impossible choice: keep fuel cheap or pay workers. Many states were already struggling before the subsidy removal—some had even slashed workweeks to three days to save costs .
Without reform, Nigeria could have seen:
- 20 months of unpaid salaries for government workers.
- Strikes crippling hospitals, schools, and public services.
- A brain drain as professionals flee abroad for survival.
The human cost would have been devastating. Families would have been pushed deeper into poverty, and social unrest would have spread like wildfire.
Smugglers and Corruption Would Have Thrived
Subsidies didn’t just drain Nigeria’s treasury; they fueled a massive smuggling industry.
Because Nigeria sold petrol far below market price, neighboring countries like Benin, Niger, and Cameroon bought cheap fuel from Nigeria and resold it at higher prices. Experts estimate that 40% of Nigeria’s subsidized fuel was smuggled out, lining the pockets of black-market dealers and corrupt officials .
If Tinubu hadn’t acted, this theft of national resources would have continued unchecked, with ordinary Nigerians bearing the cost.
No Money for Schools, Hospitals, or Roads
Every naira spent on subsidies was a naira not spent on:
- Fixing crumbling hospitals where patients sleep on floors.
- Building schools where children learn under leaking roofs.
- Repairing roads that have become death traps.
Tinubu argued that ending subsidies would free up funds for real development and he was right. Even now, some states are seeing record allocations from the saved funds .
But if subsidies had remained? Nigeria’s infrastructure decay would have worsened, leaving future generations with a broken country.
The Subsidy Trap Would Have Doomed Nigeria’s Future
Past presidents; like Jonathan in 2012 and Buhari in 2016; tried to remove subsidies but failed because of public backlash . Each time, subsidies crept back, and Nigeria’s debts grew.
If Tinubu had hesitated, Nigeria would have remained stuck in this vicious cycle:
- Subsidies eat up the budget.
- The economy weakens.
- The next president faces an even worse crisis.
By acting boldly, Tinubu broke the cycle; but the road ahead is still tough.
A Painful but Necessary Decision
Removing subsidies was never going to be easy. Nigerians are suffering now; transport costs have doubled, food prices are soaring, and anger is rising . But the alternative? Economic collapse.
Tinubu’s move was a gamble, but it may be Nigeria’s only chance to rebuild. The question now is: Will the saved funds actually reach the people?
If the government invests wisely; in jobs, infrastructure, and social programs; history may yet judge this decision as the turning point Nigeria needed.
But if the funds disappear into corruption, as they often have before, then the sacrifice of millions will have been in vain.
The subsidy is gone. Now, Nigeria must ensure it was worth it.
